Tuesday, September 20

Predicted: Iran Threatens EU with 'Economic Consequences'

My August 21 post 'Would Europe go to war over oil?' questioned how the EU was going to be able to negotiate with Iran, considering that they were negotiating from a compromised position.

"Negotiating with Iran is no piece of cake as we can all see. Iran has its oil exports that it can hold over the negotiators head. That is a powerful bargaining chip as most of the E.U. Countries import oil from Iran including Italy, France and to a lesser extent, Germany. Europe combined receives approximately 9% of their oil imports from Iran, averaging about 860 thousand barrels/day. In addition, Japan receives approximately 12% of their oil imports from Iran. There are no real alternate sources to replace this oil if Iran decides to turn off the tap if the E.U. negotiators attempt to push Iran on permanently halting their (alleged) nuclear weapon program." - Fred Fry

The main issue I had was that Iran provides 9% of the EU's oil imports. Iran is now threatening that they will use their oil as a bargaining chip. To their credit, the EU negotiators are pushing to send Iran in front of the Security Council. Their push has forced Iran to issue this threat in reply:

"Those countries that have economic transactions with Iran, especially in the field of oil, have not defended Iran’s rights so far," he said. "So based on how much they defend Iran’s national right will facilitate their participation in Iran’s economic field." - Ali Larijani, Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator

So far this has been prety predictable. How predictable? Predictable enough to guess that the Chinese and Russians would come out against sanctions, which they now have.

A wildcard in all this is the news that North Korea (on the surface) appears to have struck a deal to end it's weapons program. This now leaves Iran standing alone in the Axis of Evil corner without a chair.

OK all you Ameri-haters, how do you feel about Iran ignoring YOUR government's efforts to peacefully resolve the situation?

Under pressure, Iran takes nuclear row to new level - Times Online UK

8 comments:

scott said...

Appeasement policies come back to bite the Euro's.

Anonymous said...

OK all you Ameri-haters, how do you feel about Iran ignoring YOUR government's efforts to peacefully resolve the situation?

Nuke 'em all! Kill! Kill! Kill! Yeeeeee-hawwww!

Seriously, I do believe that a peaceful resolution will come out of this, especially since IG Farben went bankrupt - um - there is no European Halliburton.

Fred Fry said...

"Yeeeeee-hawwww!"

You can bet that the EU three are using the Cowboy in the Whitehouse as a stick against the Iranians. So far, its not working to well. Russia and China just failed the first test. The mullahs flushed them out. Good test on their part.

Anonymous said...

I bet we would be living in a safer, happier world if we just bombed Iran flat. And Syria. And those evil Frenchies. And Hollywood and New York City too.

Fred Fry said...

"I bet we would be living in a safer, happier world if we just bombed Iran flat. And Syria. And those evil Frenchies. And Hollywood and New York City too. "

A 'progessive' suggestion from a poster located in Finland.

Anonymous said...

A 'progessive' suggestion from a poster located in Finland.

Actually, I would propose trying peaceful solutions first. This is what you would call an "appeasement policy".

But sure, bombing everyone and everything in sight is a lot more manly. Especially as you rich daddy makes sure you won't actually have to do any fighting yourself.

Fred Fry said...

"Especially as you rich daddy makes sure you won't actually have to do any fighting yourself."

That is the standard comment to anyone with this type os view is it?

One - I do not need anyone's help to avoid military service, you need to volunteer..

Two - I volunteered in 1990. I have been to the middle east and was part of Operation Iraqi Freedom.

Three - I wish my daddy was rich. He is 69 and recently retired from working as a lineman for over 30 years for NY Tel. This is hardly the best way of making it rich. While unable to provide me with lots of money so that I can kick back drinking Long Island Iced Teas all day, he has provided for me by being a great father, and that was much more valuable than a rich father.

It must be great to be sitting over there knowing that there is no risk for you there. Kinda makes it easy to take your view. So North Korean runs over the south. Ooops. So Iran spends 18 years lying about breaking the NPT. No big deal, they only want a bomb to protect themselves.

Europe and the US are suppossed to be on the same side. Too bad that Europe has acted childish for the last couple of years because Bush is not the type of person they like to deal with. (but have no problem dealing with Saddam, Kim Jong Il, etc...)

Negotiations are working real well in Zimbabwe..... Worked real well in Kosovo too.

Anonymous said...

One - I do not need anyone's help to avoid military service, you need to volunteer..

I wasn't referring to you with the comment about being bailed out of combat by a rich daddy. I think you know who I had in mind.

It must be great to be sitting over there knowing that there is no risk for you there.

You must be living in a strange world. Have you taken a look at the map lately? Who would it be that is separated from Islamic fanatics by two oceans? In case you don't realise, it takes about two days to drive from Baghdad to Paris. Thanks to the Bush administration's fun little excursion, Iraq has become a terrorist training camp swarming with salafists. If Turkey became a member, they'd be at the EU's border.

To increase Iraqis' (and Muslims' at large) love for the west, it just wasn't enough just to start this pointless war, was it? No, it had to be conducted in the worst way possible. You just had to torture and humiliate people, didn't you? In the very same prison that the Ba'athists had used, no less. Thank you very much. I feel so safe now.

Europe and the US are suppossed to be on the same side.

I was under this impression before Dumbya took over, yes.

Too bad that Europe has acted childish for the last couple of years

Indeed, "Old Europeans" have *gasp* disagreed on something. How childish. Completely inexcusable. Now, where did I put those launch codes...